The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season. IMD said that as of June 2026, Sea Surface Temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have exceeded the threshold required for El Niño conditions. 

 

According to IMD, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean at present, and are likely to continue till the end of the southwest monsoon season. A neutral IOD means it is unlikely to significantly amplify or offset El Niño’s effects this year.

 

El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The last time El Niño conditions developed was in 2023.

 

In its Second Stage Long Range Forecast for Monsoon Season, IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall over the country during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September.