The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has forecast that India is expected to see above-average precipitation from July to September, which is the country’s peak monsoon season. The APCC Climate Center has released India’s first monsoon forecast for the year. The Center has produced two distinct estimates, one for April through June and the other for July through September.

The recent ENSO alert, which calls for a smooth transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions, is blamed for this change in the forecast. In July to September forecast, the APCC Climate Center stated that enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is expected for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific.

Earlier, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra had said that persistent El Nino conditions are likely to bring intense heat during the summer season this year. However, the prevailing El Nino conditions is likely to get neutral after the summer season. La Nina conditions generally associated with good monsoon rainfall in India are likely to set in by the second half of the monsoon season.